The Times Poll : Voters Likely to Reject Most Deficit Plans

Congress faces virtually a no-win situation as it grapples with the federal budget this year since almost any specific decision lawmakers make to reduce the deficit would offend many more voters than it would satisfy.

The latest Los Angeles Times Poll shows that members of Congress face a potential political backlash if they vote either in favor of President Reagan’s budget proposal to boost defense spending and slash many domestic programs or to impose the across-the-board spending cuts required as a last resort by the Gramm-Rudman budget-balancing law.

Although a substantial number of Americans say such a decision by their congressional representatives would not alter their opinion of them, nearly 40% state that they would be more inclined to vote against an incumbent who accepted either step. Less than 20% said that they would think more highly of their congressmen if they took such actions.

There might be a slight political advantage, the poll indicates, if Congress approved more modest budget cuts combined with some tax increases. But voters reject most specific tax proposals, and Reagan has vowed to veto a tax hike, making the lawmakers’ task all the more frustrating.

Americans acknowledge that they would be almost as satisfied if Congress did little to slash the deficit.

Indeed, only 14% of the public, faced with a range of possible economic developments, identified failing to reduce the deficit as a serious threat to the nation’s economy, while 30% felt that any rise in the nation’s unemployment rate would be threatening.

‘Not Really a Crisis’

“When you come right down to it, the budget deficit is not really a crisis to most Americans,” said I. A. Lewis, director of the Times poll. “Sure, they’re concerned about it, but, so long as they are satisfied with the state of the economy, it isn’t that important to them.”

The American people continue to send mixed signals to Washington about their desires on the two major domestic issues confronting Congress this year--the budget deficit and tax revision.

For example, Americans generally support the idea of eliminating the deficit by 1991, which is the heart of the Gramm-Rudman balanced-budget measure, but they overwhelmingly reject the across-the-board spending cuts the law requires if all other deficit-cutting efforts fail.

If the Supreme Court accepts a lower court ruling that the automatic mechanism in Gramm-Rudman is unconstitutional, no spending cuts could go into effect until Congress approved them.

But, even if the Supreme Court rules that the new budget law is unconstitutional, a fall-back provision would nonetheless require Congress to approve or reject the across-the-board spending cuts. That would happen only a few weeks before this fall’s election, if lawmakers cannot reach agreement with the White House on an alternative budget that would come close to meeting the $144-billion deficit target for the next fiscal year.

Case-by-Case Basis

Only 22% of the public favors such across-the-board spending cuts as the best way to reduce the deficit, with 64% advocating that Congress make specific reductions on a case-by-case basis.

But, when asked where they would cut spending, a majority of Americans oppose cuts in nearly all government programs.

About 38% of the public does favor a cut in military spending, with only 12% supporting any increase. Nearly half the public is satisfied with keeping military spending about where it is today, a rejection of President Reagan’s position that the defense budget should be increased by 8% above what is necessary to keep up with inflation next year.

A majority of the public favors reductions in mass transit spending and one-third would accept a decline in subsidized loans to college students.

But Americans overwhelmingly reject cuts in other areas, such as farm subsidies, poverty programs, Social Security and small business loans.

Less Support for Revision

Although deficit cutting is not a high priority for most Americans, there appears to be even less support for tax revision. Only 25% of the public said that “reforming the federal income tax laws” was more important than reducing the deficit, and 59% considered narrowing the budget gap as more important than tax revision.

Reagan has vowed to press the Senate to approve a tax revision plan similar to the bill already accepted by the House, which would lower taxes for most individuals but increase corporate taxation.

Most respondents approved of Reagan’s opposition to tax increases, particularly increases in income taxes. An overwhelming 72% of the public rejects an income tax increase as a good way to cut the deficit, and 56% believes the government does not need to raise taxes this year to make a serious dent in the deficit.

However, when asked to choose among a number of ways to increase revenues, Americans display a willingness to consider certain types of tax increases.

Although it is strongly opposed to higher charges for Medicare, a national sales tax or larger fees on government-backed home mortgages, the public favors by an 81%-17% margin the idea of higher excise taxes on liquor and cigarettes and is split down the middle on whether an oil import tax is a good idea.

Resigned on Taxes

Americans appear resigned to the possibility of higher taxes, because 61% predicted that taxes will go up this year.

When asked to choose among four possible ways to cut the deficit, 40% preferred a combination of modest tax increases and budget cuts, compared to just 21% who preferred budget cuts alone, 16% for Reagan’s budget proposal and just 10% for Gramm-Rudman’s across-the-board cuts.

Even as the public displays affection for Reagan that is nearly unprecedented at this stage of a President’s term, Americans frequently differ with his positions on crucial issues.

Reagan’s overall rating remains high, with 71% of the public having a favorable impression of him and 65% approving of the way he handles the presidency. But the public overwhelmingly opposes his proposed cuts in domestic spending and increases in defense spending and rejects Reagan’s budget by a 2-1 ratio.

And, as long as satisfaction with the state of the economy continues, Reagan’s high approval ratings should continue as well. Only 18% of the public considers the economy to be in bad shape, the best result since Reagan took office.

The telephone poll of 2,241 people was conducted from Feb. 20-25. The sampling error of the poll was plus or minus 3%, which means that the results could vary by three percentage points in either direction if every adult in the country had been interviewed on the same questions.

POLITICAL PROBLEMS OF GRAMM-RUDMAN Results from Los Angeles Times Poll conducted Feb. 20-25.

WAYS TO CUT THE BUDGET “Would you favor one of the following cutbacks, or would you rather consider some other way to cut government expenses, instead?”

Favor Other Eliminate AMTRACK and other mass transit 51% 38% Reduce the number of student loans 34 61 Cut back farm subsidies 22 71 Eliminate the Small Business Administration 16 73 Reduce aid to families with dependent children 16 80 Reduce spending for the poor 16 80 Cancel cost of living adjustments for Social Security 11 87

Don’t know Eliminate AMTRACK and other mass transit 11% Reduce the number of student loans 5 Cut back farm subsidies 7 Eliminate the Small Business Administration 11 Reduce aid to families with dependent children 4 Reduce spending for the poor 4 Cancel cost of living adjustments for Social Security 2

WAYS TO INCREASE REVENUE “Would you favor one of the following revenue hikes or would you rather consider some other way to raise money for the government, instead?”

Favor Other Higher taxes on liquor and cigarettes 81% 17% A national lottery 65 30 Charging user fees 51 35 Higher tariffs on oil imports 45 46 A higher gasoline tax 36 61 A national sales tax 31 62 higher costs for federally assisted home mortgages 31 57 Increasing income taxes 24 72 Charging more for Medicare 10 87

Don’t know Higher taxes on liquor and cigarettes 2% A national lottery 5 Charging user fees 14 Higher tariffs on oil imports 9 A higher gasoline tax 3 A national sales tax 7 higher costs for federally assisted home mortgages 12 Increasing income taxes 4 Charging more for Medicare 3

CONGRESS IN A NO-WIN SITUATION Would you be more likely or less likely to vote for your representative in Congress if he or she . . .

Likelihood of vote for Rep. More No eff. Less Voted for smaller cuts in defense and domestic programs but met the goals of Gramm-Rudman by raising some taxes 29% 36% 25% Voted for only small budget reductions and made only minor cuts in the deficit 28 36 27 Voted to pass the Reagan budget 20 34 39 Could not agree on a budget formula and allowed Gramm-Rudman across-the- board cuts to take effect 15 40 35

Don’t Net know support Voted for smaller cuts in defense and domestic programs but met the goals of Gramm-Rudman by raising some taxes 10% +4 Voted for only small budget reductions and made only minor cuts in the deficit 9 +1 Voted to pass the Reagan budget 7 -19 Could not agree on a budget formula and allowed Gramm-Rudman across-the- board cuts to take effect 10 -20