The Year Didn’t Work Out the Way Experts Predicted

A year ago, The Times asked the research directors of five Los Angeles-based brokerage houses to pick 10 stocks that they thought would perform well during 1987. Unfortunately, just like the market, our pickers had a rough time. Much of their gains from early in the year were wiped out by the October crash.

Only one of the five ended up ahead for the year. Those that did worse tended to pick a higher number of over-the-counter stocks, which as a group lost 3.86% for the year as measured by the total return on the NASDAQ composite index of OTC stocks. By comparison, the total return on New York Stock Exchange issues was a positive 3.57% as measured by the NYSE composite index. Donna Hostetler of Crowell, Weedon, the top performer in the group with an average return of 1.4%, had eight of her 10 picks in NYSE issues.

Here are the results of their picks:

DONNA HOSTETLER Crowell, Weedon 1987 Dow Forecast Results:

High: 2,210 -512 points

Low: 1,740 +2 points

Close: 1,950 +12 points

Stock Picks

Closing % Company price ($) chg. American President 29.50 +12.9 Baker Hughes 13.625 None C.R. Bard 34.50 -4.8 Gottschalks 8.00 -19.0 Halliburton 24.75 +1.5 Newport Corp. 9.00 -25.0 Optical Coating Laboratory 14.25 -11.6 Standard Oil* 71.50 +44.8 Unisys 33.625 +26.3 Westinghouse Electric 49.75 -10.8 AVERAGE RETURN +1.4

* Price at which shares tendered to British Petroleum on May 13

ROBERT M. HANISEE Seidler Amdec Securities 1987 Dow Forecast Results:

High: 2,250 -472 points

Low: 1,775 +37 points

Close: 2,100 +162 points

Stock Picks

Closing % Company price ($) chg. Comarco 3.75 -54.5 CVN Cos.** 8.00 -64.0 Consolidated Stores 5.00 -63.0 Electrospace Systems 27.00* +61.2 Evans & Sutherland Computer 22.25 -11.9 General Dynamics 48.75 -28.0 MCA 34.50 -10.1 NCA*** 8.50 +88.9 Optical Radiation 15.50 -11.4 Sizzler Restaurants International 17.75 +14.5 AVERAGE RETURN -7.8

* Acquisition price by Chrysler on July 23

** Formerly C.O.M.B.

*** Price acquired at by ASK Computer Systems in August

GREGORY H. KIESELMANN Morgan, Olmstead, Kennedy & Gardner 1987 Dow Forecast Results:

High: 2,500 -222 points

Low: 1,900 +162 points

Close: 2,200 +262 points

Stock Picks

Closing % Company price ($) chg. American Medical International 12.63 -14.4 Barris Industries 6.88 -54.9 Caesars World 21.75 +14.5 Caremark* 21.33 -5.7 Great Western Financial 15.25 -18.1 MCA 34.50 -10.1 PS Group 24.88 -29.9 Texaco 37.25 +3.8 Wickes 11.50 None AVERAGE RETURN -12.8

* Acquisition price by Baxter Travenol Laboratories on July 31.

Only nine stocks were picked.

WERNER E. KELLER Bateman Eichler, Hill Richards 1987 Dow Forecast Results:

High: 2,500 -222 points

Low: 1,850 +112 points

Close: 2,350 +412 points

Stock Picks

Closing % Company price ($) chg. Cybertek Computer Products 2.88 -70.5 DH Technology 4.75 +2.7 Diagnostic Products 31.25 +16.8 GlenFed Inc. 22.00 -9.3 Maxicare Health Plans 3.50 -77.6 Owens-Corning Fiberglas 16.38 +19.1 Rykoff-Sexton 22.50 -14.7 20th Century Industries 17.63 +2.2 Vendo 4.25 -55.3 Westcorp 5.00 -43.7 AVERAGE RETURN -23.0

STEVEN B. REID Wedbush Securities 1987 Dow Forecast Results:

High: 2,150 -572 points

Low: 1,700 -38 points

Close: 1,950 +12 points

Stock Picks

Closing % Company price ($) chg. American Medical International 12.63 -14.4 Beeba’s Creations 8.13 -44.9 Beverly Enterprises 7.00 -57.3 Caremark* 21.33 -5.7 Cimco 10.75 +4.9 Comarco 3.75 -54.5 HealthVest 18.75 -10.7 International Lease Finance 12.00 -29.4 Optical Radiation 15.50 -11.4 Syncor International Electric 3.38 -49.1 AVERAGE RETURN -27.3

* Acquisition price by Baxter Travenol Laboratories on July 31