Mass-Appeal Dance Music Still Calling the Tune : But Some Record Producers Are Hoping for a New Voice to Break Through

Whether they love it or hate it, music industry insiders agree that the light, mass-appeal dance music of records like Lisa Lisa & Cult Jam’s “Lost in Emotion” and Jody Watley’s “Looking for a New Love” is going to continue to dominate the airwaves in 1988.

That’s the view of record company executives, producers and managers surveyed by Calendar about likely pop trends for 1988. Among other possible developments: an increase in songs with political or social comment, a move away from synthesizers and an upsurge for folk rock.

The current dance music trend--greatly influenced by the success of Madonna and Prince--has even spawned its own radio format: the so-called urban/crossover sound, pioneered locally by powerhouse KPWR-FM.

The trend earned industry recognition last February, when Billboard magazine introduced a separate “crossover” chart. The chart has become a good predictor of eventual pop success. Of the 14 hits that have topped the crossover chart to date, all but one have gone on to reach the Top 5 on the pop chart.

The statistics are not lost on Clive Davis, president of Arista Records. “I definitely see the crossover sound continuing,” he said.

Mike Bone, president of Chrysalis Records, agreed. “If anything’s growing, that’s growing. There’s more acceptance of it in the pop community, and I think that’s good. It’s a valid art form.”

Bone could easily start an argument with that last comment. While there’s agreement among most music executives surveyed that the urban sound is apt to remain dominant in 1988, there’s wide disagreement about the merit of that sound.

Ron Nevison, who produced hit albums last year for Heart, Ozzy Osbourne and KISS, complained, “There’s got to be passion in music, and there’s no passion in (the new urban sound). It’s fun, but it doesn’t have any soul. It’s lowest-common-denominator music.”

But even Nevison acknowledged that the sound is likely to remain hot. “I hope it goes away soon, but I don’t think it will,” he said.

Arista’s Davis said he thinks the criticism of urban/crossover music is unfair. He credits the “urban” format with breaking down the racial barrier that existed in the early ‘80s between pop and R&B; stations. Instead of segregating most artists by color, as was the practice then, urban outlets play dance-oriented hits by white and black artists.

“People complained when black artists couldn’t get played on Top 40 radio,” Davis said. “Now they complain about homogenization. You can’t have your cake and eat it too.”

Jeff Ayeroff, co-managing director of Virgin Records, said he’d like to see more pop and R&B; stations adopt the integrated racial approach of urban/crossover stations. “I’d like to see a sort of mulatto radio,” he said. “I abhor this apartheid radio system that we have, because everything can work on every format.”

But Ayeroff predicted an end to the proliferation of so-called Madonna clones--dance/pop singers like Stacey Q, Debbie Gibson and Tiffany.

“It’s the female Fabian era,” he said. “Madonna is the archetype, like Elvis was in the ‘50s. Elvis was great, but Fabian wasn’t as good, and neither was Bobby Rydell. It’s the same here. Madonna is the star of the ‘80s, and all the others will fall away. They’ll be doing revival shows in the 2000s.”

Michael Lippman, who co-manages George Michael, among others, also predicted that few of the current dance hit makers will have long-lasting success. “So many of them sound like Madonna or Prince or this one or that one,” he said. “Let’s look back in a year or two and see who’s still around. It’s not an artist-oriented format, it’s a producer-oriented format, sort of like disco was. A lot of it gets boring and repetitious.”

Is pop music finally ready for a return to the topical commentary of the ‘60s?

Some music insiders suggested the time may be right. They cited two factors: the mass acceptance of U2’s socially-conscious “The Joshua Tree” album and the fact that this is an election year.

Freddy DeMann, who manages Madonna and Lionel Richie, among others, said he thinks that music is going to get “a little tougher . . . a little more political.”

DeMann, a 20-year industry veteran, continued, “We’ve just had a long run in an age of innocence, and we’re coming into an age of discontent. Reaganism was kind of like the Eisenhower years: We were lulled to sleep, but now we’re coming out of it. That reflects in politics, music, everything we do.

“I think there will still be dance music--I hope there will be. I love it and certainly my artists have enjoyed it. But I think there are going to be more U2s. Someone will emerge as the next voice of discontent like Dylan was in the ‘60s.”

Virgin’s Ayeroff agreed. “It’s going to be real interesting with the upcoming election, and because of a sort of malaise in this country with the homeless and racism and the AIDS phenomenon and sexuality paranoia. I think the election will pull up a lot of issues.”

But other industry executives said that the absence of a galvanizing social issue comparable to the Vietnam War or the civil rights movement may inhibit political comment in songs.

Davis noted, “I don’t see 1988 as being a year where those lonely voices cry out with anguish. I don’t know what burning issue separates the parties meaningfully. Most issues are fudged.”

Lippman cautioned against reading too much into U2’s success. He pointed out that the U2 records that were most successful this year weren’t political. “With or Without You” was basically a love song; “I Still Haven’t Found What I’m Looking For” was a universal expression of longing.

Chrysalis’ Bone added, “Times are good, even with the stock market crash. There’s really not that much to be protesting about. It’s kind of difficult to tell some kid with a new car that he should be protesting against the system.”

Instead, Bone said, that kid will want to party .

The Chrysalis chief sees continued success for heavy metal and metallic pop acts such as Bon Jovi and Whitesnake, whose latest albums sold 8 and 4 million copies, respectively.

“As long as General Motors continues to make Camaros, we will have heavy metal,” Bone said. “It’s one of the rites of passage. The demand for hard rock and heavy metal is constant. It’s the industry’s recognition and support of it that goes up and down.”

Bone also suggested that 1988 will see an upsurge of interest in live bands--especially young American, guitar-oriented outfits like R.E.M., the Replacements and Guadalcanal Diary.

“People want to see ‘em and touch ‘em,” he said. “They want to do more than just hear ‘em on the radio and see ‘em on MTV. A lot of English acts aren’t willing to come and take the time to tour. American bands are already here, and they want to tour.”

Davis predicted a resurgence of the folk-oriented singer-songwriter movement that hit a peak in the early ‘70s. “If there were a new Jackson Browne or James Taylor--in an updated, contemporary way, not necessarily as mellow--I think he could break through in a big way,” Davis said. “There’s a big audience waiting for something like that. Look at the way Taylor draws crowds, or the millions of people that bought ‘Graceland’ by Paul Simon.”

Ayeroff has also noticed the support for Taylor and Simon and predicts continued acceptance of older artists. “It has to do with the graying of rock ‘n’ roll,” he said. “Kids are more accepting of that today. Rock ‘n’ roll has evolved in such a way that not everybody’s bowing out because they have crow’s feet.”

Several industry insiders suggested that live musicians (rather than a battery of synthesizer effects) will make a comeback in the recording studio in 1988.

DeMann said Madonna and Richie will be moving in that direction on their next albums.

“I would like to see artists get away from digital and samplers and get back to real musicians--guys that have a technique and a feel,” DeMann said. “That’s what made the Motown, Stax and Muscle Shoals records in the ‘60s so great. Today, everything is reproduced by machines. There’s an emptiness in that.”

Lippman agreed. “I hear a lot of people complain there’s no real soul in a lot of the machine-oriented music; that it projects a very cold sound. Cold is a strange thing for music to connote.”

Brian Murphy, president of Avalon Attractions, Southern California’s leading concert promotion company, said he expects continued interest in outdoor stadium shows in 1988. Five acts played stadiums in the Los Angeles/Orange County area this year (David Bowie, U2, Madonna, Genesis and Bob Dylan/the Grateful Dead), and Murphy said Pink Floyd is already set to play a stadium date here early next year. He added that outdoor shows by Van Halen and the Who are “possible.”

The big question, of course, is when the fabled Next Big Thing will come along and revolutionize pop music. At least two industry heavyweights think the time is right.

Davis said: “I don’t know if it will be this year or next year, but you get the feeling that something new is going to come along and be influential and trend-setting. I think we’re ready for that right now.”

Narada Michael Walden, who has been Billboard magazine’s No. 1 pop singles producer of the year for the past two years, agreed.

“There’s not a lot musically happening right now,” he said. “The doors are wide open. I think something really substantial could emerge on the scene next year.”