The Plot Thickens

The fate of the foreign hostages held in Lebanon has now become an issue involving, among other things, Iran’s domestic politics and its possible intention to begin showing a more moderate face to the world; Iraq’s provision of missiles capable of hitting Damascus to Lebanon’s anti-Syria Maronite Christian forces; Syria’s response to that perceived threat and the pursuit of its own hegemonic interests in Lebanon; the future of hundreds of Palestinian and Lebanese prisoners in Israel, and the efforts of the United States, Britain and other Western nations to have their captive citizens in Lebanon set free.

What initially had been proffered as a more or less straightforward swap of a radical Lebanese Shiite cleric abducted by Israel 11 days ago for three of its captured servicemen is thus showing signs of evolving into a multidimensional international bargaining session of great complexity and perhaps long duration. As Richard W. Murphy, formerly one of the State Department’s top Middle East experts so aptly put it over the weekend, “the bazaar is open,” and the offers, counteroffers, threats and ultimatums are starting to be heard from all sides.

Does all this activity bode well or ill? It could be encouraging if it means that Iran and Syria are finally ready to use their influence--which means apply pressure--on Hezbollah, the radical Shiite group that holds the Western hostages. At the same time, the direct involvement of outside forces, each with its own priorities, promises to complicate any confidential negotiations aimed at bringing off a prisoner swap. Iran and Syria, which don’t necessarily share the same agenda, are in a position to serve either as facilitator or saboteur when it comes to a deal. Iraq might similarly try to play the role of wrecker if it appears that either of its mortal enemies were in a position to profit politically from an end to the hostage problem.

Complicating things still further are the family ties that account for at least some of the hostage-taking in Lebanon. Many of the 17 Shiites jailed in Kuwait for attacks on the U.S. and French embassies, for example, are related to a single Lebanese hostage-holding clan, whose one demand from the beginning has been for their release. Other hostage-holders are believed linked by blood ties to Lebanese terrorists jailed in Western Europe. If, indeed, behind-the-scenes efforts are under way to construct a grand exchange, a lot of countries and a lot of parties will have to be involved. It’s going to be a hard and probably lengthy business, and given the disparate interests involved, the outcome can by no means be taken for granted.