Delay of 1990 Census Update Is Forecast : Minorities: Revised figures will be too late for use in fixing congressional boundaries and government allotments, an expert tells a congressional committee.

WASHINGTON — Although the Census Bureau agreed in a settlement of a court suit to take special measures to count minorities and poor people in the 1990 census, the updated figures will probably not be used initially to determine congressional district boundaries or government aid allotments, a congressional researcher said Tuesday.

Census officials have admitted that the 1980 Census missed an average 4.5% of the population of large cities and 6% of blacks and Latinos. Los Angeles and California were among the plaintiffs in a 1988 suit to compel the Census Bureau to conduct a separate tally that would correct for the undercount.

In a July settlement of the suit, the bureau agreed to conduct a random survey of 150,000 households after it completes the traditional census mail survey on April 1 of next year. Under the terms of the settlement, the commerce secretary will have the option of using the survey to make an adjustment if large discrepancies are found.

But Daniel Melnick, a specialist in federal statistical policy for the nonpartisan Congressional Research Service, said that results of the survey may not be available in time to influence congressional redistricting or the distribution of governmental aid funds that are allocated on the basis of population.

He said the bureau will go to President Bush on Dec. 1, 1990, with data collected largely by mail surveys. These figures, unadjusted for the undercount, are likely to be treated as the official census tally, he said.

By April 1, 1991, when figures are released to the states for apportionment and redistricting purposes, the bureau may still be working on the statistical surveys that attempt to adjust for the undercount of minorities and the homeless, Melnick said.

“As a practical matter, the question is how late the states can receive census figures and still be able to draw district boundaries in time for the 1992 elections,” Melnick said in remarks prepared for a House subcommittee hearing on the census. “A delay in the availability of census data could require special sessions of the legislatures in order to redistrict in time to avoid altering the 1992 election calendar.”

Mark Plant, deputy undersecretary of commerce, told the subcommittee that the secretary would not make a decision on using the statistical results until July 15, 1991. He said the Census Bureau must complete the in-person canvass of homes, compare results to the mail survey, make the adjustments and produce adjusted census files for affected areas.

“As you can appreciate, this is an extraordinarily complicated procedure and represents a tight schedule of operations,” he said. “However, we must complete all these steps before even being in a position to consider adjustment.”

However, Plant said the reporting of the figures should not bump up against the states’ deadlines for redistricting.

“If no decision on adjustment has been made by those deadlines, the results of the traditional enumeration will be published with a notation stating that these population counts are subject to possible correction for undercount or overcount,” he said. “If a decision is made to adjust, the adjusted figures will be released no later than July 15, 1991.”

Peter L. Zimroth, chief legal officer for New York City, said he believes the second count could be completed even earlier than government officials predict. He cited a study done for New York City by a Boston consulting firm that said corrected small-area counts could be provided by March 31, 1991.

“The bureau’s own reputation is at stake,” Zimroth said. “It is inconceivable that the Census Bureau will be unable to prepare a corrected census, if the bureau is committed to that goal.”

If the bureau is not committed, Zimroth predicted, the cities will go back to court to force compliance. “We will be alert to any signs that unfounded objections are impeding the path to an improved census,” he said.