At Derby, Eyes on Horse Without a Tail

LOUISVILLE, Ky. — The most talked-about Kentucky Derby candidate this week has been Sea Cadet, the horse born without a tail. And the answer to the most-asked question on the Churchill Downs backstretch is trainer Ron McAnally’s usual reply: No, he doesn’t seem to miss it.

The attention paid to this 10-to-1 shot might suggest that the contenders in Saturday’s race have not generated compelling interest. And, indeed, that is the case. Since the probable favorite, Dinard, was injured last week and other potential stars have fallen by the wayside, the field for the 117th Derby looks like a lackluster one.

But at this stage of the racing season, experts frequently deplore the quality of the 3-year-old crop. Similarly negative sentiments abounded in 1986, before a lightly regarded colt named Alysheba won here and developed into the sport’s biggest hero. Stars can be born and drama can be generated in the Derby in ways that couldn’t be imagined beforehand. If the popular opinion that this is a mediocre bunch of 3-year-olds is to be altered on Saturday afternoon, there are four horses capable of doing it.

-- Fly So Free was the champion of his generation as a 2-year-old, and was earning many superlatives as he rolled to three straight stakes victories in Florida this winter. But his solid status as the favorite for the Derby was shattered when Strike the Gold trounced him in the Blue Grass Stakes at Keeneland. Trainer Scotty Schulhofer says, “He wasn’t getting hold of the track,” though that’s the hoariest excuse in the book.

But if Fly So Free should bounce back, he will be part of an illustrious, short list of colts who have won both the 2-year-old title and the Derby. No horse has done it since Spectacular Bid.

-- Strike the Gold has been virtually unknown for most of the time that Fly So Free has been the country’s top-ranked colt, but he shot into prominence with that decisive three-length victory in the Blue Grass. The son of Alydar fits the classic pattern of the late-blooming stretch-runner who begins to show his talent around Derby time.

-- Hansel, like Strike the Gold, burst into prominence in Kentucky this spring. He ran one of the fastest 1 1-8-mile Derby preps in history when he won the Jim Beam Stakes in 1:46 3-5 over a souped-up racing strip at Turfway Park.

-- Best Pal twice finished within a half-length of Dinard during the winter in California, whose tough, competitive racing circuit has produced four of the last five Derby winners. The gelding has made the best impression of all the horses at Churchill Downs this week, training fast and looking good. “His coat shines, he’s relaxed and everything is just the way you’d want it,” said his confident trainer, Ian Jory. “He’s ready.”

These four are widely viewed as being in a class apart from the rest of the field, and they are so evenly matched that any of them could wind up the post-time favorite. Churchill Downs’s morning line makes Fly So Free the favorite and lists the top ones at odds between 5-2 and 4-1. The difference between them might be decided not by the innate superiority of one, but by the pace and tactics of the race.

The way the race unfolds could be dictated by the anomalous Sea Cadet. Unlike most horses, whose tail bone is about a foot long, Sea Cadet was born with only a nub, and it’s covered with just enough hair to give him an ungainly appearance. McAnally says he is like “an airplane without a rudder.” Even so, he appears to be the most formidable speed horse in the 16-horse field, and he should find his way to the front of the pack. When he gets there, jockey Chris McCarron will attempt to slow the pace as much as possible.

When the early stages of the Derby are run slowly -- with the first half-mile in 48 seconds or thereabouts -- horses racing near the lead get to relax and usually have the strength to withstand the stretch-runners in the field. Such a scenario will benefit the quick Best Pal and especially Fly So Free, who will break from post position No. 1 and could sit in perfect position just behind the tailless leader.

But if Sea Cadet is subjected to early pressure, and the early fractions are fast -- 46 seconds or so -- the Derby will be a much different race. The hot pace would benefit Strike the Gold, as well as other stretch-runners such as Quintana and Lost Mountain.

If the strategic development of the Derby adds an element of uncertainty to it, so may the weather. The forecast calls for mid-afternoon rain, and not a single horse in the field has won on a sloppy track. Such conditions could turn a Derby that is already evenly matched into one that is utterly indecipherable.