ORANGE COUNTY VOICES : COMMENTARY ON BASE CLOSURE : Weighing the Costs of Shutting Down El Toro Marine Facility : The economic and human impacts of the proposal demonstrate a compelling need to keep the air station open.

Recent events have provided their share of surprises regarding the future of our great county and its economy. We have absorbed a greater-than-normal economic downturn, concentrated in defense-related industries and business relocations out of state. In addition, noted economic forecasters see negative effects staying with us longer than in other areas of the country. Both developments strip us of our usual leadership role in national economic recovery. We must now add the recent listing of the El Toro Marine Corps Air Station for potential closure as another disturbing possibility!

With fine neighbors like the El Toro Marines, it’s hard to encourage their departure. I am surprised and personally disturbed by the listing, especially considering the county’s longstanding partnership with the Marine Corps regarding emergency response, land-use planning, airspace restrictions, military housing and transportation improvements. In light of The Times’ survey results published last Monday, I offer some observations on the review process, which is now underway.

The base is currently recommended for closure, and we must allow the Defense Base Closure and Realignment Commission an opportunity to conduct public hearings and gather all points of view. This is the same process I supported for the Tustin Marine Corps Air Station, now scheduled for closure, with the county actively involved in its reuse planning efforts. If the final decision in September is to close the El Toro base, located in unincorporated territory, the county will become the local lead for transition and reuse planning, a role that the Board of Supervisors is fully prepared to assume.

I support an objective review process with the goal of appropriately downsizing our defense budget. At present, my greatest disappointment is that apparent political pressure had some bases excluded from consideration and others either deleted from, or added to, the formal list at the last minute. The independent commission has wisely chosen to follow its mandated responsibility to examine all appropriate military installations as potential elements of a streamlined defense posture.

I remain confident that, as the commission identifies the economic impacts and cost-effectiveness of proposals from the various branches of the service, some bases may be removed from the list for pragmatic reasons, possibly even El Toro.

Unfortunately, several narrowly focused special-interest groups have come out prematurely to advocate parochial points of view. If such views are allowed to undermine the commission’s responsibility for objectively assessing the value of the base by unilaterally determining a preferred reuse, they will have precluded other points of view and possible alternatives, including the option of maintaining the base here in Orange County!

Ultimately, if the base is designated for closure, such a large facility located in the center of Orange County presents many significant regional land-use planning challenges. Many special-interest groups may assume this one asset as a panacea for a wide scope of projects, from hazardous materials to open space.

Beyond any airport concepts, I have already heard such alternatives as high-speed rail/monorail center; jail; park-and-ride facility; low-income housing, and tilt-rotor aviation or heliport. Surely that list would grow as time passes.

Since the Defense Department must measure cost/benefit factors, it will be interested in the potential selling price of the property to offset the massive cost impacts of relocating the Marines and providing for their families’ and infrastructure needs, currently estimated to exceed $1 billion. Opportunity for significant “open space” or other non-revenue generating uses will, by definition, not be high on the priority list because such use cannot offset the relocation costs.

If the base closes, all the above uses, and many more, will be considered as an overall reuse plan is developed by the county.

We will have the opportunity--indeed, responsibility--to objectively consider all alternatives and formulate the best economic development and land-use plan to benefit all county residents.

Personally, I’m concerned with the federal cost/benefit analysis regarding proposed relocations when appropriate infrastructure and housing, available locally, are sadly lacking in San Diego. I have no doubt the Marines would make it work if they are given the final order: Because of their sense of duty, they will not participate in the public debate. However, the benefits and economics of relocating several military groups to various facilities to make room for the Marines, and the need to develop new infrastructure, should be carefully evaluated.

The commission will need to determine if the proposed moves make economic sense, while ensuring that the Marine Corps mission is protected.

We must also ensure that all the subtle impacts on our community and the Marine Corps are well documented by the commission and that a compelling need for relocation is clearly demonstrated.

People I’ve talked with remain proud of the Marines and their contributions to Orange County and the world over the last 50 years and are not anxious to see them leave. The Times survey bears us out in that assessment. I cannot believe the Marine Corps would be well served by the family upheaval attendant to such a mass relocation, the costs of which may never be fully counted. Military families tend, for the most part, to endure in silence what many of us would consider unbearable hardship. They deserve our best efforts to ease the strain of service.

It will be difficult for the Base Closure and Realignment Commission to justify keeping El Toro on the final list given the cumulative economic and human impacts of closure.

Factors high on the list for consideration include: massive relocation costs, including new aviation infrastructure and family support requirements; greatly increased personnel costs caused by lack of family housing in the Miramar area; depressed land value of the base in a stagnant market; the important role the El Toro base plays in local emergency response plans, and most certainly, local job losses in tough economic times.

Its present use as a Marine aviation support facility in conjunction with Camp Pendleton, and a major strategic deployment base--as recently demonstrated during peration Desert Storm and the Somalia relief effort--is in the nation’s best interest and must be protected.

Currently, the Base Closure and Realignment Commission process is the proper forum to provide community input and identify the significant local impacts. The Board of Supervisors is taking a strong active role in preparing for the hearings April 27 in San Diego. We intend to make a compelling case based on military necessity and national economic factors.

In the final analysis, I hope they will agree that costs of relocating the Marines far exceed benefits in either military efficiency or national defense savings. The country can save critical tax dollars and maintain our best security posture by keeping the Marines at El Toro.