Democrats’ Momentum May Have Been Momentary

I’m thinking back to a warm night 13 months ago, to the post-election party for local Democrats at the Anaheim Hilton. Clinton had won the presidency. Barbara Boxer had won. Dianne Feinstein had won. Democrats in Orange County were laughing--and on election night, no less. A band was playing, people were dancing, the cash bar was singing. Everywhere you looked, another Orange County Republican was defecting.

It was, well, intoxicating. Visions of a two-party county danced through people’s heads.

Here we are a year later, and as for all that local Democratic momentum . . .

If you put your ear to the ground, you don’t exactly hear the rumbling hoofs of stalwart Democratic candidates.

Instead, party regulars talk about candidates who will emerge sometime after the first of the year. They talk about setting their sights on four local races--and even then, some wonder aloud how realistic winning those four is.

“I’d be happy with two of the four, personally,” says one former Democratic candidate.

As if that weren’t deflating enough, there is the chiding of the county party’s central committee, which, according to one party insider, is “selling candy bars and having carwashes and rummage sales to raise money.”

That is not encouraging when the Republican opposition in the targeted races includes Congressman Robert Dornan and his money machine, millionaire state Sen. Rob Hurtt and incumbent Assemblyman Curt Pringle, sure to receive as many GOP bucks as he needs to retain his seat. Dornan hasn’t formally announced he’ll seek reelection, but if he does, he “probably can’t be beat,” one veteran Democratic Party activist says.

The fourth race Democrats are pointing to is the open Assembly seat being vacated by Tom Umberg. The Democrats’ hopes for success in the targeted races are based on registration edges in the Dornan and Hurtt districts and Umberg’s open district. Pringle’s district is closely divided.

County Democratic Party Chairman Dorianne Garcia will say only that the Democrats will have four good candidates for those seats and that the names will begin shaking out early in 1994. She said the party is also creating a “farm team, developing candidates not only for this go-round, but for the next one.”

Meanwhile, she continues to get mixed job reviews. Some longtime party insiders say no one takes her or the central committee seriously. Others say she’s underrated and is being unfairly compared to her predecessors.

“She’s not (former Chairman) Howard Adler, but she’s working (on) it and she’s nobody’s fool and pushover, and she’s putting in the time,” says a veteran party insider.

Another insider is George Urch, Umberg’s chief of staff and a longtime Democratic Party activist. He acknowledged the Democratic lineup isn’t anywhere near set.

“I don’t think we have (the candidates) yet. I think the key is going to be filing day. That’s in February or March. If we can come up with competent candidates in each of those four, we’re in good shape. If we don’t, then we’ve lost all our momentum. We’ve got people saying they want to run, but the search is still out there.”

Mike Ray, another party regular, says President Clinton “has turned out to be exactly what he said he was, which is a DLC (Democratic Leadership Council) Democrat, and NAFTA proves it. The NAFTA (North American Free Trade Agreement) is very big symbolically as well as in real life as a commitment to a certain set of moderate ideals, and he continues to set the tone for what’s happening, not only nationally but locally.”

Robert Nelson, a registered Republican who has worked on GOP campaigns but who openly denounced Dornan and supported Clinton in 1992, says Democrats have a tough job ahead.

The problem is overcoming the GOP’s huge registration advantage. “Until people change party identification, they’re not going to start voting for Democrats at the local level,” he says. Local Democratic challengers also have problems establishing name identification, because of the absence of local TV exposure.

But just as Ronald Reagan converted Democrats and led undecideds into the Republican camp, so can Clinton, Nelson says. The sobering news for local candidates, Nelson hastens to add, is that 1994 may be too soon for that to happen. Given the historic off-year slide of the reigning national party, Nelson thinks Democrats would be wise to talk down their chances in 1994.

All of this has the county GOP smiling, as usual. “The only rational point to be made is that they didn’t have momentum to begin with,” says Greg Haskin, executive director of the county Republicans. “They spent probably 10 times as much money in ’92 than they ever spent before and they got the same number of votes for Clinton that they did for that stellar candidate (Michael) Dukakis four years earlier. I don’t call that momentum.”

With an Orange County voter registration advantage of around 52% to 34%, county Republicans can afford to be cocky.

Check back in a year to see whether they’re still smiling or whether the Democrats really did have Big Mo on their side.

Dana Parsons’ column appears Wednesday, Friday and Sunday. Readers may reach Parsons by writing to him at The Times Orange County Edition, 1375 Sunflower Ave., Costa Mesa, Calif. 92626, or calling (714) 966-7821.