Identifying Mexico’s Political Assassins : Reinventing the nation has left Salinas with many enemies

After decades in which political assassination seemed a thing of the past in Mexico, two key leaders in the ruling Institutional Revolutionary Party have been murdered in a matter of months. In March the PRI’s presidential candidate, Luis Donaldo Colosio, was gunned down in Tijuana. On Wednesday, Jose Francisco Ruiz Massieu, the majority leader in Mexico’s Chamber of Deputies and the PRI’s No. 2 official, was the victim. Backed for his position by President-elect Ernesto Zedillo Ponce de Leon, Ruiz Massieu was a confidante of outgoing Mexican President Carlos Salinas de Gortari and had been a central figure in the transition from Salinas to Zedillo.

The phrase political assassination suggests murder for ideological rather than personal or narrowly economic motives. Speculation as to who is responsible for this latest murder has been rampant, with suspicions focusing on the unresolved Chiapas uprising of last January or political disputes within the PRI. But it is at least as likely that drug lords are behind the slaying, which does not appear to be the work of a fanatic, but a hired gun.

In his campaign to modernize Mexico, Salinas has undermined the economic and political power of many interest groups. Dethroned union bosses, some now in jail, are his sworn enemies. Many former policemen, fired from their jobs for corruption, have openly joined the ranks of criminal organizations that rob, assault and kill their fellow citizens. Crooked financiers have also sworn revenge against a political and legal system that once sheltered their illegal activities, but was turned against them by Salinas. Many old-guard PRI officials have been fired from their posts and are now also looking for the chance to get even.

So Salinas’ struggle to reinvent Mexico has left him with many enemies. But the drug lords, angry at tougher law enforcement and perhaps eager to show their power, may be the most dangerous enemies. It may very well be that behind the assassinations of both Colosio and Ruiz Massieu lies a lethal combination that Latin Americans refer to as narco-politics.

The Mexican drug Mafias may believe that they have the resources to literally terrorize the government and turn Mexico into a republic of fear, like their criminal counterparts in Colombia did.

The “Colombianization” of Mexico would mean a running battle of the sort seen for years in Colombia between government security forces and the underground army of the drug trade. If this is indeed the meaning of the Ruiz assassination, then the enemy has surely landed a grievous blow. But the drug lords will not destabilize Mexico as easily as they did Colombia. Mexico is bigger, stronger and more sophisticated than Colombia. Mexico can also count on the help of a powerful next-door neighbor.

Ruiz Massieu’s murder must bring sorrow to this entire continent. His colleagues in Mexico’s leadership are staring into the face of war, and they should be accorded some of the respect we reserve for wartime leaders. They can win, but only if they do not have to fight alone.