IN CONTENTION | Tom O’neil
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There’s impressive agreement between the Oscars and SAG Awards. Over the last 14 years, academy voters agreed with 20 of SAG’s 28 lead actors and actresses and 15 of the guild’s 29 supporting performers. (In 1997, there was an extra SAG supporting actress winner because of a tie.) Comparison is tricky in some cases: Benicio Del Toro won lead actor for “Traffic” at SAG and supporting at the Academy Awards in 2001.
Oscars
ACTOR
Favorites
Leonardo DiCaprio, “Revolutionary Road”
Clint Eastwood, “Gran Torino”
Richard Jenkins, “The Visitor”
Frank Langella, “Frost/Nixon”
Sean Penn, “Milk”
Brad Pitt, “The Curious Case
of Benjamin Button”
Mickey Rourke, “The Wrestler”
Spotlight: Four contenders look like good bets for Oscar bids since they were nominated by SAG and the Golden Globes: Langella, Penn, Pitt and Rourke. Who’ll get the fifth Oscar slot? Some pundits are stubbornly backing Eastwood even though he was snubbed by both awards, which is usually the kiss of death. Others believe voters will include one token art-house option, as they often do -- that’s Jenkins.
Possible
Josh Brolin, “W.”
Daniel Craig, “Defiance”
Benicio Del Toro, “Che”
Dustin Hoffman, “Last Chance Harvey”
Hugh Jackman, “Australia”
Ben Kingsley, “Elegy”
Michael Sheen, “Frost/Nixon”
Will Smith, “Seven Pounds”
ACTRESS
Favorites
Cate Blanchett, “The Curious Case of Benjamin Button”
Anne Hathaway, “Rachel Getting Married”
Sally Hawkins, “Happy-Go-Lucky”
Angelina Jolie, “Changeling”
Melissa Leo, “Frozen River”
Meryl Streep, “Doubt”
Kristin Scott Thomas, “I’ve Loved You
So Long”
Kate Winslet, “Revolutionary Road”
Kate Winslet, “The Reader”
Spotlight: No doubt Meryl Streep will increase her record tally of nominations to 15, but she’s only won twice (“Sophie’s Choice,” “Kramer vs. Kramer”). By contrast, Katharine Hepburn prevailed four times with 12 bids. Will voters feel pity for Streep, who hasn’t triumphed in 26 years? Or do they assume she’s already won a million Oscars because her name keeps popping up? Watch out for the possibility that Winslet could be nominated in lead for “The Reader” instead of “Revolutionary Road.” Oscar voting rules are different than SAG and Golden Globes, which bought her dubious claim that “The Reader” role is supporting.
Possible
Kate Beckinsale, “Nothing but the Truth”
Penelope Cruz, “Elegy”
Nicole Kidman, “Australia”
Keira Knightley, “The Duchess”
Emma Thompson, “Last Chance Harvey”
Michelle Williams, “Wendy and Lucy”
SUPPORTING ACTOR
Favorites
Josh Brolin, “Milk”
Robert Downey Jr., “Tropic Thunder”
Philip Seymour Hoffman, “Doubt”
David Kross, “The Reader”
Heath Ledger, “The Dark Knight”
Eddie Marsan, “Happy-Go-Lucky”
Dev Patel, “Slumdog Millionaire”
Spotlight: Can anybody beat Heath Ledger? Brolin had another big year (“W.,” “Milk”) after starring in the last best picture champ, “No Country for Old Men.” Downey had a hefty year too (“Iron Man,” “Tropic Thunder”) and is appealing because his personal story involves a triumph over drug addiction. If “Slumdog” wins best picture, as many pundits predict, that boosts Patel since the film champ usually claims at least one acting award.
Possible
Alan Alda, “Nothing but the Truth”
Tom Cruise, “Tropic Thunder”
Ralph Fiennes, “The Reader”
James Franco, “Milk”
Emile Hirsch, “Milk”
Dennis Hopper, “Elegy”
Bill Irwin, “Rachel Getting Married”
Liev Schreiber, “Defiance”
Michael Shannon, “Revolutionary Road”
Brandon Walters, “Australia”
SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Favorites
Amy Adams, “Doubt”
Penelope Cruz, “Vicky
Cristina Barcelona”
Viola Davis, “Doubt”
Rosemarie DeWitt, “Rachel
Getting Married”
Taraji P. Henson, “The Curious Case
of Benjamin Button”
Marisa Tomei, “The Wrestler”
Debra Winger, “Rachel Getting Married”
Kate Winslet, “The Reader”
Spotlight: Considering the past success of Woody Allen actors in the supporting races, Penelope Cruz is the early front-runner, but these second-tier categories are where upsets most frequently occur. Watch out for Viola Davis in the heart-tugging role of a mother who decides not to challenge a priest who may be molesting her son. Adriane Lenox won a Tony Award for the role on Broadway.
Possible
Kathy Bates, “Revolutionary Road”
Rebecca Hall, “Vicky Cristina Barcelona”
Beyonce Knowles, “Cadillac Records”
Queen Latifah, “The Secret Life of Bees”
Lena Olin, “The Reader”
Tilda Swinton, “The Curious Case of Benjamin Button”
SAG Movies
ACTOR
Richard Jenkins, “The Visitor”
Frank Langella, “Frost/Nixon”
Sean Penn, “Milk”
Brad Pitt, “The Curious Case of Benjamin Button”
Mickey Rourke, “The Wrestler”
Spotlight: Many pundits believe Sean Penn is ahead at the Oscars, but don’t make that same assumption at SAG. When he won the Academy Award five years ago for “Mystic River,” he lost SAG to Johnny Depp (“Pirates of the Caribbean: Curse of the Black Pearl”). Does that mean fellow actors have an issue with the notoriously huffy Penn?
ACTRESS
Anne Hathaway, “Rachel Getting Married”
Angelina Jolie, “Changeling”
Melissa Leo, “Frozen River”
Meryl Streep, “Doubt”
Kate Winslet, “Revolutionary Road”
Spotlight: Kate Winslet has lost five Oscar races, but she prevailed as SAG’s supporting actress of 1995 for “Sense and Sensibility” over academy fave Mira Sorvino (“Mighty Aphrodite”). That means she’s got one more SAG film award than the star widely considered to be the greatest movie actress of modern times: Meryl Streep. The latter’s only SAG victory to date was in the TV races (“Angels in America,” 2003).
SUPPORTING ACTOR
Josh Brolin, “Milk”
Robert Downey Jr., “Tropic Thunder”
Philip Seymour Hoffman, “Doubt”
Heath Ledger, “The Dark Knight”
Dev Patel, “Slumdog Millionaire”
Spotlight: No one has ever won a SAG award posthumously, so if Heath Ledger can prevail here, that’s a good omen for the Oscars, where only one actor has ever won after his death (Peter Finch, “Network”).
SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Amy Adams, “Doubt”
Penelope Cruz, “Vicky Cristina
Barcelona”
Viola Davis, “Doubt”
Taraji P. Henson, “The Curious Case of Benjamin Button”
Kate Winslet, “The Reader”
Spotlight: A victory for Penelope Cruz will mean she’s finally overcome two obstacles -- being cover-girl gorgeous and a foreigner -- to be taken seriously by American actors. If Winslet triumphs, it means there’s strong support for “The Reader,” which may push this role up to the lead race at the Oscars, challenging Winslet’s rival bid for “Revolutionary Road.” Could her votes split, causing Winslet to be nominated for neither?
ENSEMBLE CAST
“Doubt”
“Milk”
“Frost/Nixon”
“Slumdog Millionaire”
“The Curious Case of Benjamin Button”
Spotlight: Yes, victories here by “Crash” and “‘Shakespeare in Love” forecast best picture upsets at the Oscars, but this category is not really a predictor of the top academy race, as many pundits claim. The awards have overlapped only six times in 13 years. Best picture long shot “Doubt” may have the best hope here because it’s such an actor-driven drama with a strong cast.
STUNT ENSEMBLE
“The Dark Knight”
“Indiana Jones and the Kingdom
of the Crystal Skull”
“Iron Man”
“Hellboy II: The Golden Army”
“Wanted”
Spotlight: This category was added last year. “The Bourne Ultimatum’s” victory over “300” and “Pirates of the Caribbean: At World’s End” suggested voters prefer to see bodies leap, spin, kick and somersault in more upscale hits. That bodes well for “Iron Man” or “Dark Knight” this year.
SAG Television
DRAMA ACTOR
Michael C. Hall, “Dexter”
Jon Hamm, “Mad Men”
Hugh Laurie, “House M.D.”
William Shatner, “Boston Legal”
James Spader, “Boston Legal”
Spotlight: Voters like to give farewell hugs to departing series (“The Sopranos” swept last year), but the “Boston Legal” vote may split with two nominees, clearing the way for the “Mad Men” bandwagon to roll through.
DRAMA ACTRESS
Sally Field, “Brothers & Sisters”
Mariska Hargitay, “Law & Order: SVU”
Holly Hunter, “Saving Grace”
Kyra Sedgwick, “The Closer”
Elisabeth Moss, “Mad Men”
Spotlight: Moss may hop a ride on the “Mad Men” train considering how voters like to hail hot new series, but they also appreciate industry veterans, especially Oscar champs who stoop to do TV (Field, Hunter).
COMEDY ACTOR
Alec Baldwin, “30 Rock”
Steve Carell, “The Office”
David Duchovny, “Californication”
Jeremy Piven, “Entourage”
Tony Shalhoub, “Monk”
Spotlight: Baldwin won the last two years and nominees are nearly all the same, but sexy newbie Duchovny sneaked in and may seduce voters.
COMEDY ACTRESS
Christina Applegate, “Samantha Who?”
America Ferrera, “Ugly Betty”
Tina Fey, “30 Rock”
Mary-Louise Parker, “Weeds”
Tracy Ullman, “Tracy Ullman’s State of the Union”
Spotlight: Last year’s champ, Fey, gave the comedic performance of the year, even if it was on a different TV show (“Saturday Night Live”).
TV DRAMA ENSEMBLE
“Boston Legal”
“The Closer”
“Mad Men”
“House M.D.”
“Dexter”
Spotlight: Just like the battle over drama actor -- hit series (“Mad Men”) vs. departing showcase for veterans (“Boston Legal”). Last year the veterans (“Sopranos”) triumphed over “Mad Men,” which was slowly building buzz.
TV COMEDY ENSEMBLE
“30 Rock”
“Desperate Housewives”
“Entourage”
“The Office”
“Weeds”
Spotlight: Red-hot “30 Rock” could crush “The Office,” which has ruled this category in recent years.
ACTOR IN A TV MOVIE/MINI
Tom Wilkinson, “John Adams”
Ralph Fiennes, “Bernard and Doris”
Paul Giamatti, “John Adams”
Kiefer Sutherland, “24: Redemption”
Kevin Spacey, “Recount”
Spotlight: The nominee with the most snob appeal usually prevails, which boosts the hope of Emmy champ Giamatti, but Spacey and Fiennes are formidable foes.
ACTRESS IN A TV MOVIE/MINI
Laura Dern, “Recount”
Laura Linney, “John Adams”
Shirley MacLaine, “Coco Chanel”
Phylicia Rashad, “A Raisin in the Sun”
Susan Sarandon, “Bernard and Doris”
Spotlight: When Linney squared off against Tony Award champ Rashad at the Emmys, Linney won, but they both should fear formidable Oscar champ MacLaine.
TV STUNT ENSEMBLE
“Heroes”
“Friday Night Lights”
“Prison Break”
“The Unit”
“The Closer”
Spotlight: Returning nominees “Heroes” and “The Unit” have a better shot now that last year’s champ, “24,” is out. “Friday Night Lights” struggles to stay alive on DirectTV but could tackle rivals, being the most athletic contender.
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THE PICKS
Gold Derby blogger Tom O’Neil predicts the Oscar season for The Envelope. For ongoing discussion of that race and other campaigns for gold -- Golden Globes, Grammys and more -- visit TheEnvelope.com.
