Sam Farmer’s Thanksgiving Day NFL picks

GREEN BAY (10-0)

AT DETROIT (7-3)

TV: Channel 11, 9:30 a.m. PDT.

Line: Packers by 6.

Over/Under: 55.

Lowdown: The Packers have won 16 in a row, but their defense gives up a lot of yards, and their offensive ground game is limping. If it can keep the crowd in the game, Detroit is dangerous.

Sam Farmer’s pick: Lions 31, Packers 28.

MIAMI (3-7)

AT DALLAS (6-4)

TV: Channel 2, 1:15 p.m. PDT.

Line: Cowboys by 7.

Over/Under: 44.

Lowdown: The Dolphins, riding a three-game winning streak, are loose and playing with confidence. The Cowboys won’t move the ball the way they did against Buffalo.

Farmer’s pick: Cowboys 24, Dolphins 22.

SAN FRANCISCO (9-1)

AT BALTIMORE (7-3)

TV: NFL Network, 5:15 p.m. PDT.

Line: Ravens by 3.

Over/Under: 38.

Lowdown: At full strength, these teams are pretty evenly matched. The Ravens are not at their best without Ray Lewis, though, and gave up a season-high 483 yards vs. the Bengals.

Farmer’s pick: 49ers 21, Ravens 17.