Racing! Welcome to one of the longest newsletters ever written

Hello, my name is John Cherwa and welcome back to our horse racing newsletter as we get ready for the running of the Kentucky Oaks.

Ever wonder if a trainer with multiple horses has an advantage in the Kentucky Derby? Well, we did too. So, get your answer with this story in the Times. (Just click here.)

OK, let’s not waste any more time and get right to Jon White’s final Kentucky Derby Top 10. Jon, of course, does the morning line at Santa Anita (among other roles in racing) and has an encyclopedic knowledge of racing history. The bad news is this is the last Derby poll, but the good news is Jon will be doing a Preakness poll the next two weeks.

Jon White’s final Kentucky Derby Top 10

1. Justify (3-1 morning-line favorite)

Why he will win: The Santa Anita Derby winner just oozes talent. Undefeated in three career starts, he is a big, gorgeous equine athlete who is as fleet as a gazelle and moves with the grace of a ballet dancer. His Hall of Fame trainer is Bob Baffert, who has won the Kentucky Derby four times. His Hall of Fame jockey is Mike Smith, who is considered one of the greatest big-money riders of all time and won the 2005 Kentucky Derby aboard Southern California-based Giacomo in a 50-1 shocker.

Why he will not win: He did not race as a 2-year-old and he has made only three career starts. As you probably know by now, since Apollo in 1882, 135 straight Kentucky Derby winners raced at 2. The only two horses to win the Kentucky Derby having made three or fewer starts were Regret in 1915 and Big Brown in 2008. This will be the first time Justify has shipped and the first time he has raced somewhere other than at Santa Anita.

2. My Boy Jack (30-1)

Why he will win: He has impressive acceleration and, despite his running style of coming from well off pace, he looks capable of rallying early enough to be first or second with a furlong to go. That is significant because 52 of the last 55 Kentucky Derby winners were either first or second with a furlong to run (the exceptions being Grindstone in 1996, Giacomo in 2005 and Animal Kingdom in 2011). This colt might relish getting the chance to go 1 1/4 miles. His Hall of Fame jockey, Kent Desormeaux, has won the Kentucky Derby three times, while his trainer, brother Keith, sent out Exaggerator to finish second in the 2016 renewal.

Why he will not win: His running style to come from well off the pace increases the possibility of encountering traffic trouble in the 20-horse field. Also, he just might not be good enough to win in what appears to be an extremely strong field this year.

3. Mendelssohn (5-1)

Why he will win: His tour de force in the UAE Derby when he won by 18 1/2 lengths and broke the track record while racing on dirt for the first time showed that he is a four-footed powerhouse. His prowess on dirt comes as no surprise inasmuch as he is a half-brother to Beholder, whose four Eclipse Awards stemmed from her exploits on dirt. A $3-million auction purchase, Mendelssohn already has proven that he can succeed in an important race in the U.S., having won the Breeders' Cup Juvenile Turf at Del Mar last year in what was a quality field.

Why he will not win: There is a possibility that he will regress off such a spectacular performance in his most recent start prior to the Kentucky Derby. Typically, it is preferable for a horse not to run such a big race right before the Kentucky Derby. There also is the dismal record of UAE starters in the Kentucky Derby. A dozen have participated in both races, their best Kentucky Derby finish being by Master of Hounds, fifth in 2011.

4. Bolt d'Oro (8-1)

Why he will win: His 7 3/4-length FrontRunner Stakes at Santa Anita last year ranks as one of the best performances by anyone in this year's Kentucky Derby field. It took help from the stewards for him to win the San Felipe Stakes at Santa Anita in March when they disqualified McKinzie, but many people consider that race to be one of the strongest Derby preps. Yes, Bolt d'Oro did not win the Santa Anita Derby. But with sufficient points to assure a spot in the Kentucky Derby field, he was in a position to be able to use that race more as a means toward an end, unlike Justify, who went into the Santa Anita Derby with zero Kentucky Derby points. Now that Bolt d'Oro has two races under his belt this year, he could be coming up to a dynamite performance in the Kentucky Derby. And his Hall of Fame jockey, Victor Espinoza, who has won the Kentucky Derby three times, certainly is a plus.

Why he will not win: He has not been able to finish first in a race since last Sept. 30. If Hall of Famer Javier Castellano had wanted to, he could have ridden Bolt d'Oro. But Castellano opted for Audible.

5. Good Magic (12-1)

Why he will win: He was the 2-year-old champ after winning the Breeders' Cup Juvenile at Del Mar, the first maiden to ever win that race. His trainer, Chad Brown, and jockey Jose Ortiz, were each voted a 2017 Eclipse Award. Brown also received the Eclipse Award as outstanding trainer of 2016. Brown's plan was to have Good Magic ready for a peak performance in his third start of 2018. All indications are that is going to be the case. Good Magic seems to have thrived at Churchill Downs in the days leading up to the Kentucky Derby. After he finished a disappointing third in the Fountain of Youth Stakes in his 2018 debut, he won the Blue Grass Stakes. And it looks like he is ready to run even better this Saturday than he did in the Blue Grass.

Why he will not win: While Good Magic did win the Blue Grass, he did not come home particularly fast. Also, the Blue Grass did not seem to be one of the better fields among the Derby preps.

6. Audible (8-1)

Why he will win: He has demonstrated that he can win either when close to the pace (as he did in his 5 1/2-length Holy Bull Stakes victory) or from well off the pace (as he did in his three-length Florida Derby triumph). He also has shown that he can run fast in the middle part of a race, then the last part of it even faster.

Why he will not win: If Hall of Famer John Velazquez had wanted to, he could have ridden Audible. But Johnny V. elected to ride Vino Rosso.

7. Magnum Moon (6-1)

Why he will win: Nobody has yet been able to beat him in four career starts. He has won both stalking the pace (as he did in his 3 1/2-length Rebel Stakes victory) and setting the pace (as he did in his four-length Arkansas Derby triumph). He has succeeded on three different tracks (Gulfstream Park, Tampa Bay Downs and Oaklawn Park).

Why he will not win: He drifted out to the middle of the track in the Arkansas Derby, not exactly what you want to see. Like Justify, Magnum Moon did not race at 2. Also, Magnum Moon has made just four career starts. The only five horses who have ever won the Kentucky Derby having made four or fewer starts were Alan-a-Dale in 1902, Regret in 1915, Exterminator in 1918, Big Brown in 2008 and Animal Kingdom in 2011.

8. Vino Rosso (12-1)

Why he will win: His three-length Wood Memorial victory was his best performance yet. It looks like he is blossoming. It also appears he might find this Saturday's 1 1/4 miles right in his wheelhouse. Velazquez opted to ride Vino Rosso instead of Audible or Noble Indy.

Why he will not win: His win in the Wood was not as good as it might seem because his bumping with eventual runner-up Enticed in the vicinity of the eighth pole took a toll on Enticed. No Wood Memorial winner has gone on to win the Kentucky Derby since Fusaichi Pegasus in 2000.

9. Enticed (30-1)

Why he will win: He won the Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes at Churchill Downs as a 2-year-old, a race that has produced a plethora of 2018 stakes winners. While he had to settle for second in the Wood Memorial, he did get bumped hard twice in the vicinity of the eighth pole by eventual winner Vino Rosso.

Why he will not win: He has never run a fast race, unlike the likes of Justify, Mendelssohn, Bolt d'Oro and Audible.

10. Flameaway (30-1)

Why he will win: His trainer, Mark Casse, deserves good racing luck this time after Classic Empire was almost knocked down early before still being able to finish fourth in the 2017 Kentucky Derby. Flameaway usually runs his heart out (nine career starts, five wins, seconds) and has won on a fast track, muddy track, sloppy track, synthetic track and turf.

Why he will not win: All of his past performances just have not been at the performance level required to win the Kentucky Derby. He was beaten by Good Magic in the Blue Grass and by both Mendelssohn and My Boy Jack in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile Turf.

More Derby with XBTV

Jeff Siegel and Aaron Vercruysse of XBTV.com are doing a series of exclusive video reports on the horses and strategies in the Kentucky Derby. Here’s a look at them, if you’ve missed any, plus a new one.

NEW: Handicapping the Kentucky Oaks. (Just click here.)

The entire XBTV crew debates the Kentucky Derby. (Just click here.)

Here’s an analysis of the draw. (Just click here.)

A look at the horses:

Part five: Noble Indy, Promises Fulfilled, Solomini, Vino Rosso. (Just click here.)

Part four: Lone Sailor, Magnum Moon, Mendelssohn, My Boy Jack. (Just click here.)

Part three: Free Drop Billy, Hofburg, Instilled Regard, Justify. (Just click here.)

Part two: Enticed, Good Magic, Firenze Fire, Flameaway. (Just click here.)

Part one: Audible, Bolt d’Oro, Bravazo, Combatant. (Just click here.)

Even more on the Derby

It’s a pretty big backstretch so I can’t get to everybody. Here’s some information from the Churchill Downs notes team, headed by Gary Yunt, put together for the media.

--Business as usual for Todd Pletcher’s gang of four (Audible, Magnum Moon, Noble Indy and Vino Rosso). They all hit the track during the 15 minutes reserved for Derby horses and galloped between 1 ¼ miles and 1 3/8 miles.

--Bolt d’Oro galloped about 1 ½ miles and jogged anoter 1 ½ miles and looked good doing it. Trainer Mick Ruis, a high school wrestler, spoke to the Invicta Wrestling Club in New Albany, Ind. on Wednesday night. He pledged $10,000 to the group with a promise of making it $50,000 if Bolt wins the Derby.

--Wayne Lukas sent Bravazo to the track for 1 ½ mile gallop on Thursday morning. “It was just a routine gallop,” Lukas said. “Not much more we can do now.”

--Combatant did his 1 ½ gallop in the morning. He will wear a special camouflage blanket for his walk over to the Derby to bring awareness to Home For Our Troops, an organization that helps disabled military veterans.

--Enticed did his 1 ½ miles as trainer Kiaran McLaughlin gave his dream strategy. “The best-case scenario would be if three or four of them go real fast early and we can drop back to 12^th or so and make a run, and obviously get there,” he said.

--Firenze Fire went a mile on Thursday, a distance that he might be better suited for. “Do I wish the race were a mile?” asked trainer Jason Servis. “Yes. But it’s 1 1/4 miles, so it is what it is.”

--Flameaway also went a mile in the morning. “He’s a horse that in the beginning was just average, and as he’s gotten older he’s gotten better and better,” trainer Mark Casse said.

--Dale Roman’s pair of Free Drop Billy and Promises Fulfilled each went 1 ½ miles. “This is a great week for everyone in the community,” Romans said. “We have a lot of friends that celebrate the Derby with us and it will be a great day for my family and friends.”

--Chad Brown is sounding like broken record with his daily lovefest for Good Magic, who galloped 1 3/8 miles. “He went super again and couldn’t be doing any better.”

--Hofburg, who has only raced three times, galloped about 1 ½ miles. “I just don’t think experience will be an issue with him,” said exercise rider Penny Gardner. “He’s so smart and so game and I think [jockey] Irad [Ortiz, Jr.] will be able to put him anywhere.”

--Instilled Regard galloped 1 5/8 miles in the morning. “He’s handling the track well and he’s settled in well,” said trainer Jerry Hollendorfer. “Nothing seems to be bothering him at this point in time.”

--Baffert’s pair of Justify and Solomini both went 1 ½ miles. Drayden Van Dyke, who will be riding Instilled Regard, usually works Justify in timed workouts. He watched Justify on Thursday morning. “Just like in the gallops here, he goes amazing,” Van Dyke said. “He’s just a horse that keeps finding more and more. I’ve never gotten to the bottom of him in the mornings so it’s looking good for him.”

--Lone Sailor went the usual 1 ½ miles. He’s owned by Gayle Benson, who also owns the New Orleans Saints and Pelicans. “She called the commissioner of the NBA after the Louisiana Derby to make sure the Pelicans would not have a playoff game on Derby Day,” trainer Tom Amoss said. “And, after sweeping the first round, they play on Friday and Sunday.”

--Mendelssohn made his first appearance on the Churchill track after clearing quarantine on Wednesday. He walked and jogged 1 ¼ miles then reversed directions and cantered a mile. “He did a very gentle exercise around the track,” said assistant Pat Keating.

--My Boy Jack just walked the shedrow on Thursday. Trainer Keith Desormeaux makes every Thursday and Sunday “no training days” at the barn.

Santa Anita review

Bombard, running for Richard Mandella, got a great stalking trip and won the $58,000 allowance feature by a length down the 6 ½ furlong downhill turf course. He paid $11.20, $5.80 and $4.00. Ann Arbor Eddie finshed second and Cimpl was third.

Santa Anita preview

Santa Anita has an undistinguished nine-race card starting at 12:30 p.m. The first 2 year olds of the year wil be racing in the first race, a 4 ½ furlong maiden special weight for Cal-bred fillies. It carries a $54,000 purse, one of five races worth more than $50,000. There are four races on the turf, the second, fourth, sixth and ninth.

The field sizes are better than Thursday, where half the races had only six horses scheduled to go. The number of entrants on Friday, in order: 7, 7, 6, 8, 6, 8, 8, 6, 10 (1 also eligible).

Bob Ike’s SA play of the day

SIXTH RACE: Exacta Box 2-4

Won't get rich in here but to me morning-line favorite El Tovar (2-1) and Preacher Roe (7-2) stand out over the other six foes. Both old pro multiple winners who finished first and third in the same race on Mar. 31, I look for them to again fire good shots and run 1-2 in this downhill turf sprint.

Thursday Result: Arms Runner could never get going and finished fourth.

Bob Ike is a Partner/VP of Horsebills.com (here’s a video) and the proprietor of BobIkePicks.com (full-card picks, 3 Best Plays and betting strategy).

Special Friday big races preview

A look at graded stakes or races worth more $100,000 or more on Friday. All times PST.

9:35 Churchill: Grade 2 $200,000 Eight Belles Stakes, fillies 3 years old, 7 furlongs. Favorite: Gas Station Sushi (2-1)

10:17 Churchill: Grade 1 $350,000 La Troienne Stakes, fillies and mares 4 and up, 1 1/16 miles. Favorite: Abel Tasman (1-1)

11:00 Churchill: Grade 3 $200,000 Twin Spires Turf Sprint, 3 and up, 5 furlongs on turf. Favorite: Vision Perfect (3-1)

11:53 Churchill: Grade 2 $400,000 Alysheba Stakes, 4 and up, 1 1/16 miles. Favorite: Good Samaritan (5-2)

2:04 Churchill: Grade 3 $200,000 Edgewood Stakes, 1 1/16 miles on turf. Favorite: Rushing Fall (4-5)

2:18 Belmont: $100,000 Flat Out Stakes, 4 and up, 1 3/8 miles. Favorite: Hard Study (8-5)

3:12 Churchill: Grade 1 $1 million Kentucky Oaks, fillies, 3 years old, 1 1/8 miles. Favorite: Monomony Girl (2-1)

Los Alamitos weekend preview

This weekly segment is in the hands of Orlando Gutierrez, marketing and media maven at Los Al. So, the floor is yours, Orlando.

“The Los Alamitos grandstand will open at 7 a.m. on Friday for simulcasting of the Kentucky Oaks. The Vessels Club will open at 10 a.m. On Kentucky Derby Day, all gates will open at 7 a.m.

“The live action will return Friday night with an eight-race program starting at 7 p.m. Black Fryday, second in the Grade 3 El Primero Del Ano Derby, will head the feature for allowance runners in the final race.

“An attractive Late Pick Four on Saturday night will be headed by an outstanding cast of 10 older horses in the Grade 3 Kaweah Bar Handicap. Nine races are on tap for Saturday starting at 6:55 p.m. The Late Pick Four will begin in the sixth race at 9:15 p.m. Quarter horse fields of 6, 9, 8 and 10 will be featured as part of this sequence.

“The 2016 AQHA champion Zoomin For Spuds leads the Kaweah Bar. To be ridden by Jesus Rios Ayala for trainer Monty Arrossa, Zoomin For Spuds will enter this race after defeating multiple Grade 1 winner BH Lisas Boy in the Moonist Handicap on March 25. Zoomin For Spuds has hit the board in six consecutive starts and 26 of 28 lifetime starts. He’s won 10 races. The field will also feature major stakes winners One Proud Eagle, Rite Regal, Unclaimed Dividend, and Mr Apollitical Dash.

“Sunday will have a 10-race program with eight of those races being trials to the Grade 2 $321,800 Robert Adair Kindergarten Futurity for 2-year-olds at 300 yards. Sixty-three horses will go with the 10 fastest juveniles advancing to the Kindergarten final here on Sun., May 20. The trials will be headed by SC Money Maker, who arrived here after running third in the $371,000 Oklahoma Futurity at Remington Park on March 24. Local maiden winners SC Coronada, Pack Light, and Conquering Marie will also race. Other top contenders include Wicked Affair and Budbreak.”

Ed Burgart’s LA play of the day

SIXTH RACE: No. 4 All Time Hi (3-1)

I love the confidence that high-percentage trainer Valentin Zamudio is displaying with the rise from the $8,000 to the $16,000 level for a gelding who was disqualified from a rapid victory five weeks ago. The sophomore bothered a few foes early when shifting out and then leveled with big strides. He since was a program scratch for $12,500 on April 14.

Final thought

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Any thoughts, drop me an email at [email protected] or follow me on Twitter @jcherwa

And now the stars of the show, Thursday’s results and Friday’s entries.

MAGIC MUSKETIER three deep into the first turn, chased outside a rival, split horses leaving the second turn, came three deep into the stretch, bid outside a rival in midstretch, gained the lead past the eighth pole and held on gamely under left handed urging. TRUE LOYALTY chased between horses then a bit off the rail, went outside a rival leaving the backstretch and three deep passing the quarter pole, came four wide into the stretch and closed willingly. SAMDAR pulled along the inside early, saved ground stalking the pace, split horses in midstretch and finished with interest inside. HONEYMOONZ OVER stalked a bit off the rail then outside a rival leaving the second turn, went between horses in midstretch and was outfinished for a minor award. PLATINUM EQUITY angled in and dueled outside a rival, fought back off the rail in midstretch, could not match the top pair late and was also outfinished for a minor share. PRIMO TOUCH had good early speed and dueled inside, put a head back in front into the second turn, battled along the rail leaving that turn and into the stretch and weakened in the final furlong.

EXTREME HEAT sped to the early lead, dueled outside a rival, drifted out some into the stretch while retaking command, fought back under urging off the rail in the stretch and inched away late. GIT ON YOUR PULPIT chased off the rail then three deep on the turn and four wide into the stretch, bid outside the winner in midstretch, battled alongside that one in the final furlong and could not quite match strides late. BLACK STORM went up inside to duel for the lead, gained the advantage leaving the backstretch, battled inside on the turn and into the stretch and held third. JOHNNY RAY stalked outside a rival then between horses on the turn, came out into the stretch and was edged for the show. BIG BAD GARY between rivals early, stalked the pace inside, came out a bit into the stretch and lacked a rally. SEVERIN pulled early and dropped back off the rail, angled to the inside into the turn, came out some into the stretch, ducked out from the whip nearing midstretch and did not rally.

TIKI BAR LOGIC had speed outside then alongside the runner-up, inched away then angled in midway on the backstretch, set the pace inside and held on gamely under urging. PARTY HOSTESS saved ground stalking the pace, came a bit off the rail on the turn, angled out into the stretch and went on willingly outside the winner late to just miss. GEMINI JOURNEY stalked three deep then outside a rival, continued three wide leaving the turn and into the stretch and edged a foe for third. RANSOMED saved ground tracking the winner throughout and was edged for the show. LITTLE NATI pulled her way between horses then stalked outside a rival, continued between foes leaving the turn, came out in the stretch and weakened. SHE'SLUCKYTHATWAY broke a bit slowly, settled just off the rail then inside, saved ground thereafter, dropped farther back into the turn and gave way, then was not persevered with late.

ROOMS tugged early and chased a bit off the rail then stalked inside, went outside a rival leaving the second turn, came out into the stretch, rallied under some urging to the front a sixteenth out and won clear. LOOKING AT THELAKE saved ground stalking the pace, came a bit off the rail in the stretch and split rivals late for the place. ROAD TEST chased outside a rival, came three wide into the stretch and was edged for second. KHALEESI (BRZ) had speed between horses then dueled inside, inched clear on the backstretch, set the pace inside to deep stretch and was outkicked late for third. SO GOLDEN a bit slow to begin, settled inside, steadied off heels into the stretch, continued inside and lacked the needed rally. OH SCATTY OH stalked outside a rival then between foes leaving the backstretch and on the second turn, came three wide into the stretch and could not summon the necessary late kick. HOTSY DOTSY a bit slow into stride, angled in and settled just off the rail, went three deep into and on the second turn and four wide into the stretch and also could not offer the needed late response. INSTINCTUAL KASH had speed three deep then dueled outside a rival, stalked a bit off the rail on the backstretch and second turn, was between horses into the stretch and weakened.

STARR OF QUALITY stalked between horses then three deep between foes leaving the backstretch and into the second turn, bid outside the runner-up, took the lead into the stretch and drew off under a brisk hand ride. QUEEN BEE TO YOU sped to the early lead, inched away and set the pace inside, dueled leaving the second turn, continued just off the rail into the stretch, came out in midstretch and was clearly second best. DONUT GIRL stalked a bit off the rail then inside into and on the backstretch and on the second turn, continued inside in the drive and bested the others. LOSTINTRANZLATION four wide into the first turn, stalked three deep then four wide leaving the backstretch and into the second turn, continued off the rail leaving that turn and weakened. SILVERSPUN PICKUP three deep early, settled off the rail then angled in on the backstretch, came out some on the second turn and also weakened. TAPITHA BONITA broke on top but hopped, threw her head and steadied at the start to drop back, pulled inside then stalked between horses on the backstretch and into the second turn, dropped back leaving that turn, came out into the stretch and had little left for the drive.

DON'T STALK ME bobbled at the start when the ground broke out behind, stalked a bit off the rail then inside, waited off heels leaving the turn, came out for room into the stretch and again nearing midstretch, rallied under urging to get up nearing the wire. GRINGO STAR had good early speed and dueled inside, fought back along the rail to gain the lead past midstretch and was edged late. ROYAL TRUMP stalked outside a rival then three deep on the turn, went four wide a quarter mile out, bid three wide into the stretch, took a short lead in midstretch, could not match the top pair late but bested the others. CURLY'S MARK dueled three deep, stalked between horses on the turn and weakened. OPTIC dueled between horses then outside a rival on the turn, battled between foes into the stretch and also weakened. PACHI THE GREY broke a bit slowly, settled inside then just off the rail leaving the backstretch, angled in on the turn and had little left for the drive.

BOMBARD stalked outside a rival then off the rail, bid three deep into the stretch, took the advantage in midstretch, kicked clear under left handed urging and held. ANN ARBOR EDDIE bobbled in the second step, chased outside a rival then a bit off the rail, angled in on the hill, came out in midstretch and finished well. CIMPL MAN chased off the rail or outside a rival, came out into the stretch and gained the show. ARMS RUNNER settled outside then alongside a rival, came out into the stretch and rallied between foes in the final furlong to be edged for third. BRANDOTHEBARTENDER unhurried off the rail down the hill, came out on the dirt crossing and four wide into the stretch and found his best stride late. FLY TO MARS stalked inside then just off the rail, bid outside a rival leaving the hill and into the stretch, battled between foes in midstretch and weakened some late. TRISTAN'S TRILOGY sped to the early lead, set the pace a bit off the rail then inside, fought back leaving the hill and in the stretch and also weakened late. ACCEPTANCE stalked just off the inside then angled in and saved ground on the hill, came off the fence in the stretch and lacked the needed rally. CONQUEROR broke a bit slowly, saved ground chasing the pace throughout and also could not summon the necessary late kick. Rail on hill at 14 feet.

COMPLETE DISCREET quickly sprinted to the front, set the pace off the rail then angled in, continued clear past midstretch and held under urging. BRAGGING RIGHTS saved ground stalking the winner throughout and finished willingly. MONGOLIAN RAHY angled in and stalked just off the rail to the stretch and also continued willingly to be edged for the place. SEA GLASS stalked outside then three deep leaving the backstretch and into the turn, continued outside a rival leaving the turn and lacked a rally. A LITTLE ROMANCE chased a bit off the rail then inside on the turn and in the stretch and did not rally. MONGOLIAN PRINCESS broke a step slowly, settled just off thee rail then outside a rival on the turn and lacked the needed response. DAISY'S STORMCAT dropped back outside then off the rail, angled in leaving the backstretch, found the rail on the turn and was not a threat. SPACERIKA broke a bit slowly, settled off the rail, went outside a rival into the stretch and did not rally. TEEN ANGEL stalked off the rail then between horses leaving the backstretch, dropped back on the turn and had little left for the drive.