Horse racing newsletter: Big day of Kentucky Derby preps

Hello, my name is John Cherwa, and welcome back to our horse racing newsletter as we check in with regular contributors Ron Flatter and Rob Henie.

It’s time for our weekly contribution from Ron Flatter of the Vegas Stats and Information Network. He’s headed to Santa Anita for the three stakes races on Saturday. Here he talks about all the Derby preps today and mixes in a bit of history. Ron, what insights do you have?

“If football and basketball can have strengths of schedule, then why not horse racing?

“Three Kentucky Derby preps are on deck Saturday, including the Robert B. Lewis Stakes at Santa Anita, the Holy Bull at Gulfstream Park and the Withers at Aqueduct.

“They are all Grade 3s, but history tells us that only two of them have been influential on the Kentucky Derby. The Withers is the exception, having never produced a Derby winner. Then again, it used to be run in May at Belmont Park. Only when it was moved to the winter in 2012 did it become a prep, producing at least one Derby starter all but one year since. Tax made it and finished 14th after winning the Withers last year.

“But let’s be honest. Most eastern trainers who had a choice between New York and something out of the deep freeze went south for the winter. Saturday’s favorite Shotski is the only graded-stakes winner in the Withers field, and he is 80-1 in the William Hill futures for the Derby.

“The Holy Bull has produced three Derby winners – Go For Gin (1994), Funny Cide (2003) and Barbaro (2006) – since it was inaugurated as the Preview Stakes in 1991. But as more trainers run their horses less often in the buildup to the Derby, only two Holy Bull starters have hit the board in the last 13 years at Churchill Downs – Mucho Macho Man (3rd, 2011) and Audible (3rd, 2018).

“Currently the 8-1 favorite at William Hill and the consensus betting favorite in global Derby futures, Tiz the Law is the lone graded-stakes winner entered in Saturday’s Holy Bull. So, it comes as no surprise that he is the odds-on, morning-line favorite. That he has the same owner (Sackatoga Stable) and trainer (Barclay Tagg) as Funny Cide has created a sense of déjà vu. But the similarities pretty much end there. By the way, Funny Cide finished fifth in the 2003 Holy Bull, so it is less an elimination race than it may be a creator of betting value.

“So, what about the Bob Lewis – or the Santa Catalina as it was known before 2007? We know it has produced a Pegasus winner as recently as last weekend with Mucho Gusto. In the context of 3-year-olds in the past 34 years, Ferdinand (1986), Charismatic (1999) and I’ll Have Another (2012) have used the race en route to winning the Derby. More recently, Dortmund and Firing Line finished one-two at Santa Anita in February 2015 on their way to finishing in the money behind American Pharoah in Kentucky.

“But in a sign of the times, no horse from last year’s Holy Bull and from the 2018 and 2019 runnings of the Bob Lewis even ran for the roses at Churchill Downs.

“Bob Baffert has trained a record seven winners in the Santa Catalina/Bob Lewis, including Mucho Gusto. But the race is worth only a maximum of 10 Derby qualifying points. Mucho Gusto collected 24 points from his 2019 preps, not enough to make the Derby field. This year Baffert entered Thousand Words (12-1 at William Hill) and High Velocity (25-1) as the only graded-stakes winners in the Lewis field.

“Like last year, when Game Winner and Improbable were held back to wait for bigger preps with more points, Baffert is keeping Eight Rings (15-1) and Nadal (12-1) in the barn Saturday afternoon.

“The results of this weekend’s Derby preps may not knock any short-priced horses out of Derby contention. But futures bettors should take heed, since recent history suggests that trainers may have eliminated some with their decisions at the entry deadlines.”

Ron Flatter is a host and reporter who covers horse racing for the Vegas Stats & Information Network, which is available at SiriusXM 204 and to subscribers at VSiN.com. He also hosts the Ron Flatter Racing Pod. The current episode includes ideas for the future of racing and a look ahead to this weekend’s Kentucky Derby preps. VSiN’s and Horse Racing Radio Network’s Dan Mason and defending National Horseplayers Championship winner Scott Coles are the guests. Just click here.

Weekly handicapping lesson

Here’s our weekly contribution from Rob Henie of the WCHR (West Coast Handicapping Report) and the ECHR (East Coast Handicapping Report). Today’s analysis comes from the fifth race at Santa Anita and incorporates some handicapping angles into the mix. Rob, take it away.

“This is a maiden special weight at 5 ½ furlongs on the turf. Top selection is MOONHALL MILLY (#9). She debuted in September back in Ireland, in a Foran Equine Irish EBF Auction race. Let’s break it down, the ‘Foran’ refers to the sponsor, an equine supplement company, while the ‘EBF’ refers to the European Breeders Fund, meaning, the only runners in this specific auction, are by sires whose connections paid a nomination fee. Auction races used to be a bit weaker, limiting runners not only to who came out of the same auction, but also within a certain price range. It’s still the same today but there’s more incentive to win one of these auction races, why? The winners meet at the conclusion of the series of races throughout the year for a chance to win a large purse. So, when buyers are looking for horses at these particular auctions, they’re looking for runners not to exceed the maximum price. It enables them to a possible win and a bigger prize toward the end of the year. This runner was brought to the U.S. off a nice third back in September, freshened, adding lasix, Flavien Prat riding for Leonard Powell, which is always huge, and she’s just super well meant, we believe. WOKE UP TO ACES (#1) debuts for Mike McCarthy, and she’s working super for her first try. The fact Joel Rosario rides is telling we believe, and this is the type of pattern we like to see from Mike, slow drills mixed with some quick works.

“Hot / Cold Race Trends: none

“Win Contenders (order of preference): 9-1-4

“X Out Runners (eliminating on the win end): none

“Positive Notes:

“4 Don’t Unzip Me - A slow start in her last try, and that was that, usually a pretty tough thing to overcome in a 5 ½ furlong turf maiden race, especially when they likely were looking for speed in that particular outing. Edwin returns the D’Amato wants to run her back short once again.

“TOP PICK: MOONHALL MILLY (#9 7-2 Prat)

“SECOND CHOICE: WOKE UP TO ACES (#1 6-1 Rosario) Debut”

The West Coast Handicapping Report can be found at http://www.westcoasthorseracing.com It has been endorsed by leading trainers, handicappers and industry sources.

Santa Anita review

There were three allowance/optional claimers on Friday’s card, but we picked the sixth as the feature because it had the highest claiming tag: $80,000. It was for 3-year-old fillies going a mile on the turf. The winner was Little Bird, making her second start in the United States after starting her career in England.

Under smart ride by Joel Rosario she swept four wide in the stretch and was hand-ridden to a 1 ¼-length victory.

“She didn’t break well her first time here (sixth in the Blue Norther Stakes), so we were hoping to break sharply [Friday] and then get her covered up,” winning trainer Richard Baltas told Mike Willman of Santa Anita. “Joel does such a great job. She got to looking around a little bit when she made the lead, but he kept her focused.”

It was Rosario’s third win out of five races on Friday.

Little Bird paid $6.20, $3.60 and $2.60. Madame Bourbon was second and Carpe Vinum was third.

Santa Anita preview

It’s the second-best day of the meeting, behind opening day when there were five stakes races. On Saturday there are nine races beginning at 12:30 p.m. There are three graded stakes, three allowance/optional claimers and three maiden special weights. There are four races on the turf and there is no purse less than $55,000.

Let’s get right to the previews.

Grade 3 $100,000 Robert B. Lewis Stakes: As mentioned above this is a Kentucky Derby points race. It’s 1 1/16 miles and, obviously, restricted to 3-year-olds. Thousand Words is the 4-5 favorite for trainer Bob Baffert and jockey Flavien Prat. He has won both his races, including the Los Alamitos Futurity, which has been a springboard for many Derby starters. There are two horses at 3-1. There is Tizamagician for Richard Mandella and Victor Espinoza. He broke his maiden in his last start, the sixth of his career. He has finished second four times. Also a second favorite, is High Velocity for Baffert and Joel Rosario. He has won two of three including the Grade 3 Bob Hope at Del Mar. He was third in the Los Al Futurity. Post is around 3 p.m.

Grade 2 $200,000 San Marcos Stakes: This is a race for older horses going 1 ¼ miles on the turf, which means it starts low on the hillside course. United is the 8-5 favorite for Mandella and Prat. This 5-year-old gelding is three-for-11 lifetime. He was second in the Breeders’ Cup Turf behind Horse of the Year Bricks and Mortar two back. Last out he was second in the Hollywood Turf Cup. Second favorite, at 2-1, is Cleopatra’s Strike for Phil D’Amato and Abel Cedillo. This 7-year-old gelding is four-for-27 lifetime with 10 seconds. He was second last out in the San Gabriel Stakes. Post is around 3:30 p.m.

Grade 2 $200,000 San Pasqual Stakes. The final stakes of the day is for older horses going 1 1/8 miles. The favorite is Midcourt at 3-1 for John Shirreffs and Espinoza. He has won four-of-eight lifetime and four of his last five. He has won the Grade 3 Native Diver and was third in the San Antonio last out. The second favorite is Roadster at 7-2 for Baffert and Rosario. He was once the top horse in Baffert’s barn on the way to last year’s Kentucky Derby. His last win was the Santa Anita Derby. He was placed 15^th in the Kentucky Derby and since then he has finished second three times in four races, including a second in the Malibu Stakes to Omaha Beach last out. Post is around 4 p.m.

Here are the field sizes, in order: 10, 5, 5, 8, 12 (1 also eligible), 6, 6,10, 12 (2 ae).

Ciaran Thornton’s SA picks of the day

RACE ONE: No. 3 Posit (12-1)

RACE ONE: No. 6 Tijori (8-1)

Posit and Tijori are both from trainer Simon Callaghan and both look live at prices. Posit makes the second start off a layoff and Simon is 22% on this move The horse won two in a row at this distance on the all-weather track in the spring before hitting the bench. In December 2018 she also ran third on the Hillside course leading into deep stretch. The distance and the surface should be ideal for today at 12-1 value. The horse is risked today so they expect to get paid. Tijori is ridden by Flavien Prat trying turf for the first time with the dam having one turf winner. Second start off a long layoff we see some sharp works for this race. This horse is owned by Kaleem Shah and when Prat rides for them it is usually live. 8-1 is nice. Excellent betting race that I am going deep in on my Pick 5 today using 1,6,4,7,10.

Friday’s result: Sunset Royale looked locked and loaded into the stretch with the inside lane but had no oomph in the stretch and ran third.

Ciaran Thornton is the handicapper for Californiapick4.com, which offers daily full card picks, longshots of the day, best bets of the day.

Big races preview

A look at graded stakes or races worth $100,000 or more on Saturday. All times PST.

11:34 Gulfstream (6): Grade 3 $150,000 Forward Gal Stakes, fillies 3-years-old, 7 furlongs. Favorite: Tonalist’s Shape (1-2)

12:34 Gulfstream (8): Grade 3 $100,000 Sweetest Chant Stakes, fillies 3-years-old, 1 mile on turf. Favorite: Moral Reasoning (9-5)

1:04 Gulfstream (9): Grade 3 $150,000 Swale Stakes, 3-year-olds, 7 furlongs. Favorite: Green Light Go (2-1)

1:25 Aqueduct (8): Grade 3 $250,000 Withers Stakes, 3-year-olds, 1 1/8 miles. Favorite: Shotski (2-1)

1:34 Gulfstream (10): $100,000 Dania Beach Stakes, 3-year-olds, 1 mile on turf. Favorite: Homeland (3-1)

1:39 Oaklawn (6): $150,000 Martha Washington Stakes, fillies 3-years-old, 1 mile. Favorite: Taraz (1-1)

2:04 Gulfstream (11): Grade 2 $350,000 Holy Bull Stakes, 3-year-olds, 1 1/16 miles. Favorite: Tiz the Law (3-5)

2:38 Oaklawn (8): $125,000 American Beauty Stakes, fillies and mares 4 and up, 6 furlongs. Favorite: Amy’s Challenge (2-1)

3:00 Santa Anita (6): Grade 3 $100,000 Robert B. Lewis Stakes, 3-year-olds, 1 1/16 miles. Favorite: Thousand Words (4-5)

3:31 Santa Anita (7): Grade 2 $200,000 San Marcos Stakes, 4 and up, 1 ¼ miles on turf. Favorite: United (8-5)

4:02 Santa Anita (8): Grade 2 $200,000 San Pasqual Stakes, 4 and up, 1 1/8 miles. Favorite: Midcourt (3-1)

Now, the stars of the show, Friday’s results and Saturday’s entries.